RESEARCH
2024 Was the Warmest Year on Record Globally, Exceeding 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial
Five independent scientific agencies — Copernicus, NASA, WMO, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth — all confirm 2024 as the warmest calendar year in recorded history. Annual mean surface temperatures ranged from 1.46°C (NOAA, 1901–2000 baseline adjusted) to 1.62°C (Berkeley Earth) above pre-industrial levels, making it the first year in the observational record to cross the 1.5°C threshold recognized in the Paris Agreement. The record surpassed 2023 by a clear margin and was driven by a combination of long-term greenhouse-gas warming and a strong El Niño event.
Findings
- All five major independent monitoring agencies — Copernicus (EU), NASA GISS, WMO, NOAA NCEI, and Berkeley Earth — rank 2024 as the warmest calendar year since direct observations began in the mid-1800s.
- Annual mean surface temperature anomalies ranged from approximately 1.46°C (NOAA, above 1901–2000 mean) to 1.62°C (Berkeley Earth, above 1850–1900 mean), reflecting differing baselines — not disagreement on the warming itself.
- 2024 is the first calendar year in the observational record where annual mean warming definitively crossed the 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement, per Copernicus (1.60°C), WMO (1.55°C), and Berkeley Earth (1.62°C).
- The record was driven by a combination of persistent greenhouse-gas forcing and a moderate-to-strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2024; the 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2015.
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.0973 (threshold 0.05)
- Copernicus Climate Change Service T5 97
- NASA GISS T5 95
- WMO T5 92
- NOAA NCEI T5 90
- Berkeley Earth T4 88
Evidence quality
avg 93 · min 85 · max 95 · spread 10