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RESEARCH

China's Rare Earth Exports Hit a 2025 Record -- But US-Bound Shipments Never Recovered

Supply Chain · 2026-07-21 14:07

China's General Administration of Customs reported total 2025 rare earth exports of 62,585 metric tons, up 12.9% year-over-year and the highest annual total since at least 2014 -- despite Beijing adding seven medium/heavy rare earth elements and magnets to its export-control list in April 2025. Coverage of that headline number diverges sharply on what it means: some outlets read it as proof the controls barely dented global supply, while others -- citing trade data showing US rare earth imports never recovered to pre-restriction 2024 levels, and yttrium shipments to the US falling from 333 to 17 metric tons over eight months -- argue the aggregate figure masks a targeted, effective squeeze on the specific materials US defense and tech sectors need most. The record total and the US-specific shortfall are both true; they describe different slices of the same trade flow.

Findings

  • China's General Administration of Customs recorded 62,585 metric tons of total rare earth exports in 2025, up 12.9% from 55.4 thousand metric tons in 2024 -- the highest annual figure since at least 2014.
  • Export volumes plunged in April-May 2025 immediately after China added seven medium/heavy rare earth elements and magnets to its export-control list (magnet exports fell 74.3% year-over-year to 1,239 metric tons in May), then recovered from June onward following US-China and EU-China agreements.
  • The recovery was uneven by destination: trade data shows European rare earth imports jumped 60% year-over-year after controls eased in November 2025, while US imports fell a further 11% that same month and never returned to pre-restriction 2024 levels.
  • The divergence shows up starkly at the single-material level -- China's yttrium exports to the US totaled just 17 metric tons across April-December 2025, versus 333 metric tons in the eight months before restrictions began, a roughly 95% drop in that one critical material even as aggregate rare earth tonnage hit a record.

Delta Engine result

↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.88 (threshold 0.05)

Evidence quality

avg 32.5 · min 25 · max 70 · spread 45