Global Coffee Supply Splits Between Record Surplus and a Fifth Straight Deficit Year

Findings

• USDA's FAS reports world coffee production for 2025/26 at a record 178.8 million 60-kg bags (+2%) against consumption of 173.9 million bags (+1.3%) -- a roughly 4.9 million bag surplus -- yet the same report still projects ending stocks falling for a fifth consecutive year.
• Volcafe, one of the largest global coffee traders, forecasts the opposite for arabica specifically: a 2025/26 global arabica deficit of up to 8.5 million bags, wider than the prior year's 5.5 million bag shortfall, after cutting its Brazil arabica estimate by 11 million bags to 34.4 million on drought.
• StoneX estimates a modest global surplus of about 1.8 million bags for the 2025 season, expanding to roughly 10 million bags in 2026/27 as Brazil's harvest recovers -- directionally aligned with USDA but far smaller in scale and concentrated in a later season.
• Rabobank frames the record rebalancing moment as landing in 2026/27 (180 million bags), not 2025/26, and Brazil's own government crop agency, Conab, still put 2025/26 domestic output at only 55.7 million bags, up 2.7 percent year over year -- modest growth against the scale of deficit Volcafe describes.