RESEARCH

Global Container Shipping Hit a 2025 Record -- Defying Drewry's Tariff-Driven Decline Forecast

Supply Chain · 2026-07-23 10:10

Global container shipping volumes closed 2025 at a record 192.9 million TEU, according to Container Trades Statistics -- up 4.7% from 2024's 184.3 million TEU and directly contradicting an April 2025 forecast from Drewry that Trump-administration tariffs would drive a 1% annual decline. Carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd raised their growth outlooks mid-year as demand outpaced expectations, while independent analytics firm Xeneta separately flagged record-breaking demand pressure on the market. The one real soft spot was North America, where tariff-driven frontloading pulled import demand forward and left U.S.-bound volumes and exports weaker late in the year even as most other regions accelerated.

Findings

Global container volumes hit 192.9 million TEU in 2025, up 4.7% from 184.3 million TEU in 2024, per Container Trades Statistics -- the highest annual total on record.
Eight of twelve months in 2025 topped 16 million TEU, a threshold reached only three times in 2024; new monthly records were set in March, May, August, and December.
Drewry's April 2025 forecast of a 1% (~1.8 million TEU) annual decline, driven by Trump-administration tariffs, did not materialize -- volumes grew instead, and carriers Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd both raised growth guidance mid-year.
Growth was uneven: North America was the exception, with U.S.-bound imports and exports both softening late in the year as tariff-driven frontloading unwound, even as Sub-Saharan Africa (+16.4% YTD through August), the Indian subcontinent/Middle East (+8.7%), and Europe (+7.3%) drove the global total higher.

Delta Engine result

↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.2588 (threshold 0.05)

Evidence quality

avg 47.5 · min 25 · max 55 · spread 30