RESEARCH
Global Containership Orderbook Splits 31% to 38.3% of Fleet Across Maritime Trackers in 2026
Five independent maritime data sources diverge by up to 7 percentage points on how large the global containership orderbook is relative to the active fleet in 2026. Primary trackers Alphaliner (38.3% as of a May 2026 update, 12.98 million TEU across 1,592 vessels) and trade association BIMCO (37% in its June 2026 container market outlook) sit close together near the top of the range. Consultancy Linerlytica, cited via IndexBox reporting, also puts the ratio at 38.3%, describing it as the highest level since the global financial crisis. Trade-press aggregator Shipping Intelligence Hub and a Freightos market forecast citing S+P estimates put the ratio meaningfully lower, at 31-35% and roughly one-third of the fleet respectively. All sources agree the ratio is at or near a multi-year, and by some counts nearly two-decade, high.
Findings
- Primary fleet trackers Alphaliner (38.3%, May 2026) and Linerlytica (38.3%, via IndexBox) agree exactly on the headline ratio, while trade association BIMC0000 sits one point lower at 37% in its June 2026 outlook -- the three most directly-attributed sources cluster within a single percentage point of each other.
- The two lowest estimates -- Shipping Intelligence Hub (31-35%, February 2026) and a Freightos forecast citing an S+P estimate of roughly one-third of the fleet -- are both weaker on source attribution: neither names the underlying data provider as clearly as Alphaliner, Linerlytica, or BIMCO do, which may explain part of the gap.
- Every source, regardless of its exact figure, independently characterizes the current ratio as the highest seen in roughly 15-20 years, meaning the disagreement is about magnitude, not direction or trend.
- Alphaliner data shows a structural shift alongside the raw ratio: since July 2025, about 74% of new orders have been for ships under 6,500 TEU, versus under 30% in the prior 12 months, so the orderbook is not just larger but skewing toward smaller and mid-sized tonnage.
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.5034 (threshold 0.05)
Evidence quality
avg 31 · min 25 · max 55 · spread 30