RESEARCH
Global EV Share of 2026 Car Sales Splits 25.7% to 28% Even as Unit Forecasts Converge Near 23 Million
Three of the most closely watched EV forecasters -- BloombergNEF, the IEA, and EV-Volumes/J.D. Power -- each published updated 2026 outlooks in recent months, and each puts electric vehicles' share of the global new-car market in a different place: 25.7%, 27%, and 28%. The trackers actually agree closely on unit volume, all clustering near 23 to 23.3 million EVs sold worldwide, which means the percentage gap comes down to how large each firm estimates the total 2026 car market to be, not how many EVs will actually sell.
Findings
- BloombergNEF's Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026 projects electric vehicles will account for 27% of global car sales in 2026 -- more than 23 million units -- up from just 9% five years earlier and an 11% increase in volume over 2025.
- The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 puts the 2026 figure highest at 28%, forecasting roughly 23 million electric cars sold worldwide, with China alone approaching 60% of its own new-car sales electrified.
- EV-Volumes (J.D. Power), publishing its update in August 2026, forecasts the lowest of the three: 25.7% of global light-vehicle sales, or about 23.3 million combined BEV+PHEV units -- a 2.1-percentage-point rise from 2025 but 2.3 points below IEA's figure.
- All three trackers converge on unit volume (roughly 23 to 23.3 million EVs) even as they diverge by 2.3 percentage points on market share -- meaning the disagreement is less about how many EVs will sell than about how big each firm estimates the total global car market itself will be in 2026.
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.1469 (threshold 0.05)
- BloombergNEF T2 95
- IEA T0 90
- EV-Volumes (J.D. Power) T0 82
Evidence quality
avg 35 · min 25 · max 55 · spread 30