RESEARCH
Global Rice Output Hits a 2025/26 Record -- USDA, IGC, and FAO Split by 15 Million Tonnes
World rice production set a new record in the 2025/26 marketing year, but the three major official trackers disagree meaningfully on the size of that record. USDA and the International Grains Council both land near 541-542 million tonnes, while FAO's November 2025 Food Outlook puts the harvest at 556.4 million tonnes -- a gap of roughly 15 million tonnes driven by more bullish assumptions about Asian production. All three agree global stocks are climbing to an all-time high.
Findings
- USDA's December 2025 Rice Outlook forecasts world rice production at 541.3 million tonnes (milled basis) for 2025/26, essentially flat versus the prior record.
- The International Grains Council's October 2025 Grain Market Report puts the figure at 542 million tonnes -- also a fresh record, and within 1 million tonnes of USDA.
- FAO's November 2025 Food Outlook is the outlier at 556.4 million tonnes, about 15 million tonnes (2.8%) above USDA and IGC, driven by more bullish Asia production assumptions.
- All three trackers agree 2025/26 set a production record and that global stocks are rising to a new high near 215 million tonnes, even as they diverge on the exact harvest size.
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.0765 (threshold 0.05)
Evidence quality
avg 71.7 · min 25 · max 95 · spread 70