RESEARCH
Global Smartphone Shipments Grew in 2025 -- Trackers Split Between 2% and 3% Growth
Four independent market-research trackers confirm global smartphone shipments grew in 2025, but the reported rate ranges from 2% (Omdia, Counterpoint Research) to 2.3%/1.26 billion units (IDC) to 3% (TechInsights). All four firms cite the same underlying driver -- a stronger-than-expected second half of 2025 on flagship launches and emerging-market demand -- and all four independently flag rising memory-chip costs as a headwind that could flip 2026 into a shipment decline.
Findings
- Omdia and Counterpoint Research each report global smartphone shipments grew 2% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.25 billion units -- the highest annual total since 2021.
- IDC's finalized count, confirmed after Q4 2025 data closed in March 2026, puts the total at 1.26 billion units on 2.3% growth -- about 10 million units above the Omdia/Counterpoint figure.
- TechInsights tracked the year at 3% growth, roughly 50% steeper than the Omdia/Counterpoint rate, following stronger Q2 and Q3 rebounds (4% and 3% YoY) than the other trackers modeled.
- All four trackers independently flag the same forward risk: rising memory-chip costs are expected to curb 2026 shipments, a headwind Gartner separately confirmed in a February 2026 forecast.
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.1714 (threshold 0.05)
- Omdia T0 95
- Counterpoint Research T0 93
- IDC T0 92
- TechInsights T0 80
Evidence quality
avg 25 · min 25 · max 25 · spread 0