RESEARCH

Global Wheat Output for 2025/26 Nears 845M Tonnes -- USDA and IGC Converge, FAO's Estimate Trails

Agriculture · 2026-07-14 14:11

USDA's WASDE and the International Grains Council both now put global wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year at roughly 844-845 million tonnes as the season wraps up, a near-record supply-side result driven by strong harvests in Canada, Argentina, and the EU. The UN FAO's most recent 2025/26-season estimate, published earlier in the marketing year in September 2025, sits about 40 million tonnes lower at 804.9 million tonnes. All three trackers describe 2025/26 as a strong production year with rising global stocks, but their headline totals for how much wheat the world actually grew differ by roughly 5%.

Findings

USDA's June 2026 WASDE report puts global wheat production at 844.4 million tonnes for 2025/26, lifted by record crops in Canada (40.0 MT) and Argentina (24.0 MT) plus a larger EU harvest (144.0 MT).
The International Grains Council's April 2026 Grain Market Report projects 2025/26 wheat output at 845 million tonnes, a 5% increase over 2024/25 -- within 0.6 million tonnes of USDA's figure.
The UN FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, last updated for the 2025/26 season in September 2025, estimated global wheat output at 804.9 million tonnes -- about 4.8% below USDA and IGC, a gap that likely reflects FAO not yet folding in the strongest late-season harvest data from Canada, Argentina, and the EU.
Despite the tonnage gap, all three trackers tell the same underlying story: 2025/26 was a strong supply year, with global wheat stocks climbing to multi-year highs as production outpaced consumption.

Delta Engine result

✓ Consensus — Δ 0.0465 (threshold 0.05)

Evidence quality

avg 48.3 · min 25 · max 95 · spread 70