RESEARCH
Supply Chain: Red Sea Crisis Rerouted 80%+ of Container Traffic via Cape of Good Hope
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea beginning late 2023 triggered the largest maritime rerouting event in decades. By early 2024, 82–90% of container tonnage that previously transited the Suez Canal diverted to the Cape of Good Hope route. The disruption added 11,000 nautical miles and up to $1M in fuel costs per voyage, inflating freight rates and transit times globally. By year-end 2024 the figure had partially recovered but remained 72% below pre-crisis levels.
Findings
- UNCTAD found container tonnage crossing the Suez Canal fell 82% by February 2024 for vessels over 13,500 TEU — the largest class of containerships
- Flexport/Alphaliner AIS tracking showed 85% of large containerships were routed via the Cape of Good Hope by the week of December 31, 2023, up from just 13% pre-crisis
- The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessed a ~90% decline in Red Sea container shipping since December 2023, with at least 29 major companies rerouting
- By November 2024, 72% fewer container vessels transited the canal vs. the prior year, confirming the disruption persisted well into late 2024 (project44 data)
- The rerouting added ~12% to global container ship demand in ton-miles and drove spot freight rates on the Asia–Europe corridor to multi-year highs
- The IMF measured a 50% drop in total Suez trade volume (all cargo types) in Jan–Feb 2024, with Cape of Good Hope arrivals surging 89% vs. the prior year by mid-2024
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.2716 (threshold 0.05)
- UNCTAD Rapid Assessment T5 92
- UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2024 T5 82
- IMF PortWatch Blog T5 70
- Flexport / Alphaliner AIS T2 89
- project44 Year-in-Review T2 76
- U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency T1 86
Evidence quality
avg 72.5 · min 40 · max 95 · spread 55