RESEARCH

Suez Canal Recovery Splits by Baseline -- SCA Reports Transits Up 5.8% While Container Crossings Keep Falling YoY

Supply Chain · 2026-07-19 14:08

The Suez Canal's early-2026 traffic data tells different stories depending on which baseline you use. The Suez Canal Authority's own H1 FY2025/26 figures show vessel transits up 5.8% and revenue up 18.5% year-over-year. But BIMCO and Clarksons Research put total canal traffic at roughly 60% below pre-crisis 2023 levels even 100 days after the last Houthi attack, and Alphaliner's independent AIS tracking found container-ship transits specifically fell for a fifth straight month year-over-year in January 2026. All three trackers are counting real vessels; they disagree on what counts as 'recovery.'

Findings

The Suez Canal Authority reported a 5.8% year-over-year increase in vessel transits (1,315 vs 1,243 ships) and an 18.5% increase in revenue ($449M vs $368M) for the opening weeks of 2026 versus the same period in 2025 -- its official, all-vessel-type baseline.
BIMCO's weekly market analysis, citing Clarksons Research, found canal traffic still running about 60% below pre-crisis 2023 levels in the week marking 100 days without a Houthi attack (the attack-free streak began after the September 29, 2025 Minervagracht strike).
Alphaliner's AIS-based container tracking showed January 2026 was the weakest January for Suez container-ship transits in a decade -- 150 crossings, down 16.7% year-over-year -- marking a fifth consecutive month of YoY declines for container-specific traffic despite the Houthi ceasefire.
The divergence traces to scope: the SCA's YoY figures compare against a still-depressed 2025 base across all vessel types, BIMCO/Clarksons benchmark against pre-crisis 2023 volumes, and Alphaliner isolates container ships -- the segment hit hardest by the 2023-24 Red Sea diversions and slowest to return.

Delta Engine result

↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.2069 (threshold 0.05)

Evidence quality

avg 31 · min 25 · max 55 · spread 30