Suez Canal Traffic Still 47-60% Below Pre-Crisis Levels Despite 'Recovery' Headlines

Findings

• BIMCO and gCaptain both report first-week-2026 Suez Canal transits remained 60% below the same week in 2023, more than 100 days after the last confirmed Houthi attack on September 29, 2025.
• Drewry weekly counts show container transits recovering from 10 ships (week 1, 2026) to 26 ships (week ending January 11, 2026) -- still under half the pre-crisis average of about 55 northbound plus 25 southbound weekly transits.
• The Suez Canal Authority reports 1,315 vessels and $449M in toll revenue in early 2026, up 5.8% in vessel count and 18.5% in revenue -- but that growth is measured against the already-diverted 2025 period, not the 2023 pre-crisis baseline.
• Container shipping shows the steepest gap of any vessel type: Q4 2025 container transits were down 86% from 2023 levels, versus product tankers down just 19%, per BIMCO vessel-type data.
• Xeneta estimates it could take three to five months for Suez routings to be broadly reinstated by major carriers, meaning the two competing narratives -- deep depression vs. steady recovery -- will likely coexist through mid-2026.