RESEARCH
Suez Canal Traffic Recovery for 2026 Splits: Revenue Climbs While Transits Stay 60% Below 2023
Egypt's Suez Canal Authority reports double-digit growth in H1 FY2025/26 -- 5.8% more vessels, 16% more tonnage, 18.5% more revenue -- and its own Q2 figures show a further 13% quarter-on-quarter revenue jump. But independent trade-press tracking (BIMCO, gCaptain, Splash247, Riviera) puts actual container-ship transits still around 60% below 2023 pre-crisis levels as of early 2026, with Q4 2025 container transits down as much as 86% year-on-2023. More than 100 days passed without a Houthi attack on shipping, yet large-scale carrier return has stayed cautious rather than turning into a broad rerouting back through the canal.
Findings
- The Suez Canal Authority reported a 5.8% increase in transiting vessels, 16% tonnage growth, and an 18.5% revenue increase for H1 of fiscal year 2025/26, with Q2 revenue climbing a further 13% quarter-on-quarter to $1.26 billion.
- Independent trade-press data (BIMCO, gCaptain, Splash247, Riviera Maritime Media) shows Suez Canal transits were still roughly 60% below 2023 pre-crisis levels 100 days after the last confirmed Houthi attack on a commercial vessel (the Minervagracht, September 2025).
- The recovery is uneven by ship type: Q4 2025 container-ship transits were down as much as 86% versus 2023, while bulkers, crude tankers, and product tankers were down a comparatively smaller 55%, 32%, and 19% respectively -- container lines remain the most cautious segment.
- Carriers that resumed transits (CMA CGM, Maersk) have done so on select services rather than fleet-wide, and analysts including Xeneta caution that any renewed flare-up in regional security could reverse the partial return -- the divergence between SCA revenue optimism and trade-press transit-volume caution reflects two different, both-true readings of a still-fragile route.
Delta Engine result
↔ Divergence Detected — Δ 0.375 (threshold 0.05)
- gCaptain T2 90
- BIMCO T0 95
- Splash247 T0 88
- Riviera Maritime Media T0 87
- Middle East Observer T0 72
- Maritime Executive T0 65
Evidence quality
avg 30 · min 25 · max 55 · spread 30