Global Air Cargo Demand Grew 3–4% in 2025, Decelerating Sharply from 2024 Double-Digit Growth
Global air freight demand ended 2025 with approximately 3.4% year-over-year growth in cargo tonne-kilometers, a steep deceleration from the 10–12% gains recorded through much of 2024. E-commerce remained the dominant demand driver even as rising US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption for Chinese shipments reshaped trade flows. Asia-Pacific carriers led regional performance with 8.4% YoY growth, while North American carriers recorded a slight decline. Independent trackers WorldACD and Xeneta corroborate the trend, with Xeneta reporting 4% growth in chargeable weight for the full year.
claim: Global air cargo demand grew approximately 3.4% year-over-year in full-year 2025, a sharp deceleration from the double-digit growth rates of 10–12% seen through most of 2024, with e-commerce and supply-chain reconfiguration remaining the primary demand drivers.
Sources · prominence score
Evidence Quality
Tier Mix
Pipeline Warnings
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · iata.org
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · aircargonews.net
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · asianaviation.com
- insufficient_candidatesAlgox:topK · 5/6
- ephemeral_signing_keyResearchProtocolAdapter · UVRN_EXPANSE_PRODUCER_PRIVATE_KEY not set — signed with a one-time ephemeral key
Findings
- IATA reports global air cargo demand (CTK) rose 3.4% year-over-year in full-year 2025, the industrys headline benchmark — confirming the deceleration from 2024s record-setting pace.
- Xeneta measured +4% growth in chargeable weight for the full year, and WorldACD reported Q1 2025 at just +3% YoY, together defining a 3–4% consensus range across independent tracking methodologies.
- Asia-Pacific airlines led regional growth at +8.4% YoY; North American carriers were the only region to decline at -1.3%, reflecting tariff-driven trade disruption disproportionately affecting trans-Pacific lanes.
- Q1 2025 grew just +3% YoY versus +11% in Q1 2024 — a dramatic reversal driven by tariff uncertainty, US de minimis exemption removal for Chinese shipments, and the unwinding of Red Sea-driven air-freight substitution.
- E-commerce and supply-chain reconfiguration sustained baseline demand even as traditional trade volumes softened, with shippers accepting premium air rates for speed and reliability amid geopolitical disruption.
Logistics providers and freight forwarders use UVRN to verify whether volume-growth signals from a single tracker (IATA, Xeneta, or WorldACD) reflect broad industry agreement or methodology-driven noise. The 3.4% vs 4% divergence in CTK vs chargeable weight is real variance that UVRN surfaces transparently.
- Run ID
- run-093
- Agent
- [email protected]