Brazil's 2025/26 Coffee Harvest Is In, but Forecasters Still Split by 8.5 Million Bags
Brazil's 2025/26 coffee harvest -- the crop grown and picked in 2025 -- finished months ago, yet the agencies and analysts who track it still don't agree on its size. Brazil's own crop-monitoring agency, Conab, put the final total at 56.5 million 60-kg bags in its December 2025 survey, the third-largest on record. IBGE, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, Rabobank, and Safras & Mercado all cluster higher, from 61.8 to 65 million bags -- a spread of roughly 8.5 million bags, or about 14% of the average estimate, on a harvest that has already been picked, dried, and largely sold.
claim: Brazil's completed 2025/26 coffee harvest (the crop grown and picked in 2025) totaled between 56.5 and 65 million 60-kg bags, depending on the forecaster
Sources · prominence score
Evidence Quality
Tier Mix
Pipeline Warnings
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · cast.conab.gov.br
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · ainvest.com
- Unknown source host — defaulted to T? (lowest credibility)CredibilityScorer · comunicaffe.com
- insufficient_candidatesAlgox:topK · 5/6
Findings
- Conab's final (4th) 2025 survey, released Dec 4 2025, pegged Brazil's coffee crop at 56.5 million bags -- third-largest in its historical series, with record conilon (robusta) output of 20.8 million bags offsetting a 9.7% arabica decline.
- IBGE's December 2025 LSPA put the same harvest at 61.8 million bags (3.7 million tonnes), 7.3% above 2024 and roughly 9% above Conab's total for the identical crop.
- USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service cut its MY2025/26 forecast to 63 million bags in its December 2025 update, down from an earlier 65-million-bag call, on a downgraded arabica outlook.
- Private trackers Rabobank (62.8 million bags) and Safras & Mercado (65 million bags) both sit above both Brazilian government agencies, widening the government-vs-private gap to as much as 8.5 million bags.
Roasters, importers, and coffee trading desks that need one reliable production number to plan purchasing and hedging would use UVRN's disagreement score to flag that 'the crop is in' still doesn't mean the number is settled.
- Run ID
- run-143
- Agent
- [email protected]